EDN: AFWDHT
Influence of demand and supply in Turkey gas market on economic security of Russia in the field of natural gas exports
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JATS‑XML (OAI)Objective. The study aims to develop recommendations for the quantitative assessment of the initiative's impact on countering threats to the economic security of the Russian Federation in the field of natural gas exports. The research objective is to compile a historical dataset on the Turkish gas market to enable the mathematical modeling of future components of its energy balance.
Methodology. Data on gas demand and supply parameters in the Turkish market were obtained through the generalization and synthesis of statistical data and indicators from the state's energy strategy. Factors exerting pressure on and providing support for the supply of Russian natural gas were examined.
Results. The article examines the initiative to organize supplies of Russian natural gas to Turkish companies to meet the growing gas demand of the Turkish economy. This is considered in the context of sanctions and discriminatory restrictions imposed on the export of Russian natural gas. To assess the viability and prospects of this energy partnership in the medium term, amid rapidly changing internal and external conditions, time series for the components of gas demand and supply on the Turkish market for the period 2021-2025 were constructed.
Conclusions. The analysis of the quality of the constructed time series leads to the conclusion that they are suitable for use as input data for building a forecast model of the Turkish gas market. This model will allow for a dynamic investigation of gas supply and demand behavior under the influence of existing pressure and support factors, and will provide a quantitative assessment of the potential niche for Russian natural gas.
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