How do economic security risks affect the value of regional meat processing complex enterprises?

Objective. To develop a conceptual framework for the economic security of meat processing enterprises in China and to develop an algorithm for calculating the sensitivity of the valuation of their equity capital to economic security risks.

Methods. We used methods of risk systematization and classification, business valuation, sensitivity analysis, discounting cash flows to equity, and the Value at Risk tool for quantitatively measuring the impact of risks on economic performance.

Results. This article systematizes the results of studies on the economic security of regional meat processing enterprises in China. The scientific development of the conceptual framework for defining the economic security of a regional vertically integrated, intersectoral structure of the meat processing complex is described. The proposed definition is based on the identification and theoretical and practical study of threats and risks emerging at the levels of the country, industry, and specific economic entity in the context of ensuring food security. An algorithm for calculating the sensitivity of valuation results to economic security risks, implemented in the author's economic model, is presented. The algorithm is based on a combination of risk classification, the Value at Risk method, a discounted cash flow model for equity, and sensitivity analysis. Using data from a Chinese meat processing complex, it is shown that the greatest detrimental effect on the company's value and net profit is associated with supply chain volatility, technological risks, and market risks. The results confirm the feasibility of using the cost-based approach for management decision-making and the scalability of the proposed tool to vertically integrated regional meat processing facilities with similar production logics.

Main conclusions. The proposed approach allows us to link the theoretical definition of economic security with the author's risk classification and the algorithm for valuing their impact. The practical significance of the results lies in the potential use of the model for business planning and risk management in vertically integrated meat processing enterprises in China.