Assessment of industries in the context of ensuring economic sustainability of the Russian Federation

The objective of this study is to group industries (types of economic activity) by their impact on the economic stability of the Russian Federation using methodological tools for assessing the significance of an industry (type of economic activity) on Russia's GDP and ranking them by growth rate.

Research methods: analysis and synthesis, statistical analysis methods, correlation analysis, and modeling.

Results: Using Rosstat data for 2012–2024 on the dynamics and structure of gross value added by economic sectors, they were ranked by their importance to GDP by calculating a corresponding coefficient that takes into account the share of the industry's gross value added in the gross value added of the economy as a whole and the close relationship between industry dynamics and the Russian Federation's gross domestic product. The ranking was also conducted by growth rate over the analyzed period. Criteria have been developed and applied to group industries into sectors vulnerable to economic resilience (risks and threats), sectors that have a positive impact and stabilize economic resilience, and sectors with a neutral impact.

Key findings: The Russian economy is becoming more resilient, its sensitivity to crises is decreasing, and positive structural changes are occurring. However, serious vulnerabilities remain, particularly dependence on raw materials (mining), and problems in the energy sector require attention. A number of sectors require stimulation and support measures to increase their resilience (transportation, agriculture, education, and other risky sectors). High-tech and financial sectors act as stabilizing factors for economic resilience, but their development should be accompanied by risk mitigation measures (e.g., reorienting investment from the financial to the real sector). Neutral sectors perform a stabilizing function, but their growth potential is limited.