INFLUENCE OF GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS IN 2025 ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE OIL MARKET: CONSEQUENCES FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

In the first half of 2025, two events occurred that could have a significant impact on global business activity and the oil market: the introduction of tariff duties on imports by the Trump administration and the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. The high dependence of the Russian economy on oil prices and exports (foreign demand) suggests that these events will affect domestic macroeconomic indicators. This determines the relevance of the goal of the work: to obtain timely quantitative estimates of the effects of these events on the Russian economy through their direct channel of influence. The research method used is the Bayesian vector autoregression approach with the identification of structural shocks based on sign restrictions. Based on the results of assessing the effects of these events on the domestic economy under various scenarios, it was shown that as a result of the introduction of trade duties by the Trump administration, Russian GDP, investment and imports may decrease by up to 1.64%, 3.67% and 7.07%, respectively, and real incomes and wages of the population by up to 1.25% and 1.03%. It has also been demonstrated that the suspension of Iranian oil supplies to the world market due to the conflict may lead to an increase in consumption and investment in Russia (through the oil supply channel) by up to 6.17% and 9.67%, respectively, and real wage and income by up to 6.68% and 3.09%. In the unlikely but possible scenario of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz for a period of six months, the effect on these macro indicators is similar and increases. Thus, it can be concluded that, under certain conditions, the trade policy pursued by Washington will have a noticeable negative effect on the domestic economy by the end of 2025 through the global demand channel, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East through the direct oil supply channel.