The Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor and its impact on the economic security of the Arctic

This article examines the impact of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor (TATC) on the economic security of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (RF).

The relevance of the study is determined by the growing importance of the Arctic for the national economy, the increasing use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and the need to develop a resilient transport system under current geopolitical and external economic challenges.

The objective of the study is to assess the impact of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor on the economic security of the Russian Arctic and to identify the principal threats associated with its development.

The methodological framework of the study comprises systems analysis, comparative analysis, content analysis, and graphical interpretation of data. The dynamics of cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for 2020–2025 were analyzed, and its development through 2027 was forecast using linear trend extrapolation. A target scenario for cargo traffic development was also developed. The findings indicate the presence of a set of threats affecting the economic security of the Arctic Zone of the RF.

The findings demonstrate that the development of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor enhances transport connectivity across the Arctic regions, expands export opportunities, and reduces the dependence of foreign trade transportation on traditional international shipping routes.

The analysis made it possible to systematize the current threats affecting the economic security of the Arctic Zone. These include geopolitical, infrastructural, climatic, technological, environmental, external economic, logistical, and human resource risks. Based on the findings, a classification of contemporary economic security threats arising from the development of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor is proposed, and their principal impacts on the sustainable development of the Arctic Zone are identified.

The study concludes that the further development of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor requires a comprehensive approach that combines the modernization of transport infrastructure, improvement of public governance mechanisms, and mitigation of the impacts of both internal and external risk factors.