ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF EMPLOYMENT FORINDIVIDUALS WITH HETEROGENEO

This work is devoted to assessing the probability of finding a job for various groups of the
population registered as unemployed in Russian employment centers from 2017 to 2020. The
probability of employment is one of the important indicators characterizing the labor market and
explaining fluctuations in the unemployment rate during business cycles. The probability of finding
a job in this job is estimated as the proportion of people who entered the labor market in a certain
period of time among all unemployed at the beginning of the period. The probability of finding a job
is estimated quarterly for individual groups of unemployed and for the entire sample as a whole. The
division into different groups of the unemployed is based on socio-demographic characteristics.
Subgroups of individuals differ by gender, age, and level of education. The results obtained indicate
that the probability of finding a job has obvious seasonal fluctuations, which are more pronounced
for the male population. It was found that people over the age of 50 have the greatest difficulties in
finding a job, whereas for people aged 40 to 50, the probability of finding a job reaches the highest
values of all the age groups represented. In addition, the probability of employment is related to the
level of education of individuals. Thus, the probability of finding a job turns out to be higher for those
who have received a bachelor's or master's degree.